Health in 2040: projected patterns of illness in England

Find out more about the projected future levels of health in England.

28th August 2024 | Lizzie Homer | Gloucestershire, Insight

How might patterns of ill health change because of our growing and ageing population? And what are the likely implications for health care services? This report explores these questions and projects future levels of illness in England’s population over the next 20 years. Although we have known for some time that an ageing population will mean an increase in demand for health services, this report gives us a better idea of the scale.

Key points

1 million people in England are projected to be living with major illness by 2040, 2.5 million more than in 2019. This is an increase from almost 1 in 6 to nearly 1 in 5 of the adult population.

Most of this rise is the result of an ageing population – as life expectancy increases and the baby-boomer generation reaches older age. While living longer is something to celebrate, this will have profound implications for the NHS, social care and other public services.
We have known for some time that an ageing population increases the demand for health services. This report gives us an idea of the scale going forward. The challenges this creates are not unique to England or the UK – as many high-income countries are ageing at a similar rate.
Much of the projected growth in illness relates to conditions such as anxiety and depression, chronic pain and diabetes, which are predominantly managed in primary care and the community. This reinforces the need for investment in general practice and community-based services, focusing on prevention and early intervention to reduce the impact of illness and improve the quality of people’s lives.
The number of people living with major illness is projected to increase by 37% – over a third – by 2040, nine times the rate at which the working age population (20–69-year-olds) is expected to grow (4%). This would create additional pressures on us all to care for and fund a growing population with high health and care needs.

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